Anubhuti Kaul Bhrany, Editor, Headlines India
Anubhuti Kaul Bhrany
Editor, Headlines India

Nuke deal: To be or not to be

It’s in country’s favour…says Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Prime Minister is to be blamed…says L K Advani…..it has been a complete saga of attacks and counter attacks, claims and counter claims….those who were or are even now opposing the nuclear deal know what is destined to happen and those who are supporting the deal also know what is on cards. It is something like this that you know you have won the game but still you need to play it till the last hit.
Even if the government would not win the trust vote, all know ultimately deal would go through the IAEA stage. Time and again Manmohan Singh government has made it clear that they are going to go ahead with the deal. And, there have been “confirmed” murmurs that Congress President Sonia Gandhi had once expressed that it would not be politically prudent to go against the wishes of the majority on the deal even though the ruling coalition managed numbers in its favour, but Mr Singh was adamant that if this deal was not pursued, he would quit the post, which the UPA chairperson definitely did not want to happen.
Looking into the technicality of the trust vote… the entire number game is in the favour of the government. But if towards the time of voting, a few more legislators switch the side and the government loses the vote of confidence, then also the entire game of proving the numbers in support of the deal would prove to be an hopeless exercise. The reason is amply clear- win or loss government would go ahead with the deal. So, is there any truth in L K Advani's rhetoric that the UPA “is making an attempt to render Parliament irrelevant”?
There have been various permutations and combinations floating in the ether, but the clear cut and logical figure which emerges out to be close to real is that in the total strength of the lower house right now is 543 (because of two vacancies in Bellary and Meerut), 267 are working out to be against the government and 269 in favour of the government.

But the irony is when you walk up to these fighting politicians and ask them can they point out only two reasons of why should they oppose or support the deal, it is very disheartening to see confused faces and to hear that the party line is something to which every one is glued to. But why is a particular party taking a call to support or oppose the deal that eventually no one is bothered. Even the in the Left which withdrew its support to the UPA, there is none, who can enumerate the negatives of the deal. But, they have a well known allergy to anything related to the capitalist US
Media too touches every political aspect associated with the deal, but even the top-rank journalists of this country might not know that on what basis is government taking the deal further or on what basis are the other political parties opposing it. So, the main issue is not even been considered or talked about…but there has been a baseless reaction of opposing or supporting the deal. The overall maturity on the issue is below average. I have not heard any discussion on prime time channels which have a detailed discussions on why should the government go ahead with the deal. If all would sit together and discuss the facts in and out, there would have been a possibility of a positive set of reactions, suggestions or additions either from the political parties or even from the journalistic fraternity. But because some are busy playing politics and some are busy covering it, there has been no positive out come.
While one studies the main portion of the 123 agreement, there would be apprehensions but there are also certain points which are encouraging, and which actually tempt us to go ahead with the deal. Why Manmohan Singh is not ready to budge from his decision of going ahead with the deal, one must understand that the PM is a capitalist in his economic outlook, so he feels capitalism is the best philosophy to be successful as a nation.
Now a quick look at what would be against India if this deal is signed7/23/2008
  • If there is any breach of pact from Indian side then all the reactors, nuclear fuel will be taken back by the US
  • Termination of the agreement would require one months notice.
  • India would not be able to carry any nuclear test
  • IAEA will have all right to inspect the civil nuclear programmes/reactors
And positives
  • A big thing which government sees to achieve by getting into this deal is that power cuts would simply become a thing of past
  • Maximum energy capture
  • It is supposed to take care of the nuclear apartheid against India
  • An opportunity for India to get closer to the US and an important player in that camp for the first time.
But at the same time when we look at the share of consumption of nuclear energy at this point in time, it is 2.6%. And even if we get into this treaty, even after 25-30 years we would be able to increase this share to 7-8% only. And this figure really puts us to a thought that whether it is actually feasible to move ahead. Apart from this, the worrying factor could be the sanctions imposed on India, should it goes for further nuclear test in a changed neighbourhood environment anytime in future.
The fact is that US cannot take India for granted, and even if it does, it has been proved in past many times that India is hardly affected with the sanctions. India is self sufficient to take care of its needs, and sanctions if implied will not have much affect on the India economy. Also one must not forget that in case there are sanctions and US takes back its reactors then also we would be in a situation as good as today, which is indeed not that bad. So, deal or no deal, India would keep rising and growing in its stature in the geostrategic world order.
Editorial Desk